2770759

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

December 21 Kunlun vs Omsk ( KHL)

 

Kunlun vs Omsk December 21 ( KHL)

Omsk have lost the 2 latest games but played OK in those games. I rate them as 2nd best team in the Western Conference. The difference in pure class is big here, even bigger than the table shows!  The small break KHL had this favors the bigger, better team Omsk as these top teams often drop points when they have been playing (and don't, similar to the NHL, find 100% motivation against a lower team) and/ or traveling a lot - distances in mother Russia are BIG and there are also many time zones too.

The game is played in Moscow as Kunlun (China) can't play at home (Covid-19) so home advantage is very slim.Not sure if all bettors actually realize this..Omsk, unlike many other big teams, didn't have many players in the international Euro tournament late this week which of course is good for them - got rest. Kunlun have in my opinion been pretty lucky result-wise lately which probably affects the odds too much here. Rarely have they been the better team on ice! Especially against Barys Nur-Sultan they were forced to defend hard but somehow grabbed a point losing in overtime. Omsk have won both previous matches against the "Chinese fake hockey team "Kunlun. In the first game in particular the were dominant.

 

BET ON: OMSK -1.5 goals, odds 1.87 with Pinnacle, estimation 61% 

 

 

 

December 15 KHL  Dinamo Riga vs Torpedo Novgorod (KHL) 

 

RESULT 4-6 - BET WON

 

 

 

 

 

A lot higher odds than expected on Torpedo here with some bookies! Didn't think there could be value betting against Dinamo. Well, with sharp bookies like Pinnacle there in fact is not value for this game.

Torpedo were playing okay vs Severstal but were ineffective with scoring in that game. Perhaps the results in that match affects the odds too much for this game.. The visitors must feel irritated after that match and poor Dinamo Riga make the perfect "victim". Overall, by pure class, Torpedo are Play Offs material in my opinion and now they have a quality goalie in Melnichuk who joined the team from the mighty SKA St. Petersburg. I believe the betting market has not fully understand the importance of this very good goalie.

The rationale for the bet is more the very  low low level team Dinamo Riga than that the market would under-value Torpedo that much. Both their roster and level of play are the worst now in the all KHL by a wide margin! Also they seem to give up easily if the and up trailing against a better team. The morale in the team is not the best for sure. Their roster has actually gotten even worse lately when the well-paid and very important for the team foreign players are gone. Also they don't seem to have any kind of effective tactics to stand a good chance versus clearly better teams.

BET ON: Torpedo to win, odds 1.72 on moneyline with bet365, (Moneyline means extra time and penalties are included)


Probability estimation: 64%

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April 9 Russia Liga Pro Short Hockey, 3x10 Minutes 

Kings Town vs Reaktivatori

 

Bet on over 6.5 total goals odds 1.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, Nightrush (click here for 100 euro tasty welcome bonus! ), Bethard and 777.be.

Chance of winning 62%, odds likely to drop soon!

 

 

These teams are more high scoring then most teams in this low level league and SOME bookies are also mislead by some abnormally low-scoring games in this league in the past 2 days.

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FREE content: NHL Power Ratings 2019-2020   Scale: 0-100

In general money is mostly made with underdogs as NHL as a whole is more

equal than the bookies and bettors realize. 1x2 chance of winning hardly ever over 60%.

Long term numbers: Home 44% Draw 21% Visitors 35%. No team have a specifically high home advantage. Toronto perhaps slightly higher than say Arizona.

Useful peace of info: Penguins without Malkin clearly better value ! When Anze Kopitar was missing Kings have been a very bad bet.

Atlantic Division

Tampa Bay Lightning      62     Terrible play offs last year result-wise. Possibly even                                                        under-valued at the beginning of the season! Still                                                            the best team in the NHL  

Boston Bruins                   55      

Toronto Maple Leafs       55      Likely to be even better than last year as young key                                                        players mature. The market seems to agree.

Florida Panthers              52      

Montreal Canadians       52      

Buffalo Sabres                 43       

Detroit Red Wings          42       Re-building will take a few more seasons

Ottawa   Senators           38      Bad overall

The rest of the power ratings were available for the premium service subscribers.

 

 

 

26 September 2019  SKA - Salavat Ufa

Many reasons for this bet. Interestingly it’s very rare we have an overlay on a big & rich team like SKA. But This IS the case today. Normally you would get price of maybe 1.4. or even less for this kind of much for SKA. We have a classic over-reaction to the results of the beginning of the season.

 

Yes, SKA have changed a lot his season, As a results it will for sure take time before they reach maximum level. They lost their best player Gusev to NH, which is of course a big minus and overall they have weakened a bit from last season.  Ska’s raw class is still very much higher than that of Ufa’s and we rank them 3rd best in KHL fir the season. It’s clear some (key) players have not been performing the level they are expected but SKA have also been a bit unlucky  in some matches. Kemppainen. a bit surprisingly has been perhaps the biggest under-performer so far. Kagartlisky also probably has earned some of the heavy criticism given to him so far this season.  

 

Ufa is able to defend pretty well and probably nothing like 6-1 is expected here. Interestingly SKA seems to play better and score more goals in week-end games, maybe to give extra pleasure to their (beer-drinking) fans! Maybe this is reflected in the odds too much today as bookies too are aware of this. Ufa relies a lot on their terrific goalie J. Metsola here. He will need to be at his very best if Ufa want to grab some points here. However so far this season Metsola has had a few pretty performances as well.

 

SKA have way more firepower here – even the 4rd line is capable of quality offensive play, Ufa, on the other hand really only have one really dangerous offensive line. It goes without sayin that on power play SKA is way more dangerous than the visitors here. Expect SKA to be irritated by surprising losses and win by a few goals here.

 

BET ON SKA to win, odds 1.63 with Coolbet.com, a bit less with most big bookies.

 

 

13 Jan Astana vs Omsk

We expected maybe little more from Barys against Torpedo especially in the away games. Of course they are known to be a lot stronger at home than in away games but here we go against them - even in Astana. The stakes get higher resulting in slightly smaller home advantage than previously this season. The series was very hard in the end eventhough Barys Astana as a better team managed to grind a victory in Game7. They had to work very hard, it was physical  and tiring long series. Now Astana face perhaps the best team from who took very surprisingly qualified with a totallt dominant series win 4-0  against the defending champions Kazan. They should be really well rested, mentally prepared and hungry for more victories.The way Omsk crushed Kazan was very impressive.  They don't even have to play as well here to beat Astana. Omsk are very well coached by ex-NHL coach Bob Hartley. Coach is factor often under-esimated by bookies and bettors alike. In the play offs even a small difference between the teams in this sector can be crucial. That is the case here. 


For me Omsk is the better team (power rating Astana 51/100, Omsk 64/100). We think rested, confident Omsk are some 44% faves here.. Unibet with best odds of the well-known reliable bookies 2.45..


Bet on Omsk 2.45 with Unibet.com, estimation 44%

 

 

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