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10 November Buccaneers vs Cardinals


This  one of the best bets (biggest overlays) in NFL this week!


Cardinals have had more time to prepare for this game. Buccaneers are coming off a disappointing  overtime loss in. Buccaneers are in a four game losing streak  - yet another season with worse than expected performance from them. 


Hard to justify the 4.5 line here. I guess bookies and quite a few bettors think Buccaneers had a great performance on the road against Seattle Seahawks. Never easy to win in Seattle of course. However we think it was not that  Buccaneers were anything special but more because of the fact that Bucs were going against a team with pretty low level secondary and an almost non existent pass rush! How about the  Cardinals' defense then? According to DVOA it's about the same level than that of SeaHawks'.  Peterson makes a huge difference for them though! He missed 6 games. A big blow for Cardinals.


Indeed, the market does not seem to value  Peterson enough.  Now he has 3 games under his belt and seems  to improve his performance all the time. Let's hope he can at least limit Evans.  Howard is having a disappointing season - great for our bet. So far we have not seen any signs for improvement, or any clear reason to why he has been so "lame! Bucs don't have a great running game which might lead Winston needing to shoulder his team - not a promising prospect for the Bucs as both of his average tackles have terrible match ups against Jones and Suggs.
Murray doesn't have protection either at the other side of the ball.  Luckily for our bet Cardinals' coaching staff has been able to come up with a with new things that seemed to work quite well versus even the best pass in the whole NFL  - the San Francisco 49rs.  The Buccaneers are good at defending  against the run, but how about their passing game?  Not all that convincing. The Buccaneers corner Davis is listed injured. Tough times ahead for the team's defensive coordinator!


Considering the fact that Buccaneers don't have a home field advantage there is only a pretty small home advantage. The line of 4.5 here means that Bucs would still be favorites even if this game was played in Arizona. We see that game would be like 55-45 % in favor of the Cardinals. There's is so much statistics for NFL, useful info as such but often some facts are given too much emphasis.. Here we have early eastern start for en eastern team, but we think the effect is pretty minimal here considering the psychological states. The Cardinals should be more and in a better with a better team spirit as well, whereas Bucs are disappointed and may have their the game versus Saints in their head. 
We think the line should be 1 or perhaps 1.5 here, certainly not 4.5! Let's take the value now!

BET ON Cardinals -> +4.5 with Pinnacle, odds 1.95 ( US -105), estimation 58%

 

 

 

28 October Steelers vs Dolphins

Taking heavy faves with big handicaps is in most cases not a good idea, not even in NFL but today it’s a different story we believe. Yes, the Dolphins did indeed cover the spread against the Redskins and for sure this is not the value bet of the century but still worth a healthy wager. Let’s take a look why..

 

Let us start with a few word about the Steelers, a team we have bet on multiple times this season. Yes, they are on 2-4 ( 2 wins and 4 losses).  The teams they have lost to very are good teams. Even the 49ers we have not rated high enough this season. The list of tough opponents ia something we feel the bookies don’t took into account as much as they should here. Steelers have recorded 3 narrow losses and twice had a very good chance of winning (trading at pretty low odds in live betting) but unfortunately Smith-Schuster could not deliver (fumble).

 

Dolphins looked perhaps a little better or should we say less bad after the bye and inserting Fitzpatrick under the center. However we must remember the two teams they faced were a disappointing and at the time winless Redskins and then Bills, team not to get excited about. Bills were playing without Milano who is a very important player for them. Missing him has was certainly a bigger loss than bookies and most bettors realized.

 

This game of course it’s not the most exciting one for Steelers but  they have to win it and we believe they have prepared accordingly. More reasons to bet on them are that fact that there coming off a bye, play at home in a nationally televised Monday night game. Indeed we think they will, after some disappointing losses take  Dolphins seriously here. It seems the market doesn’t fully agree as we all should know they true (lack of) Dolphins’ class by now! The Steelers may have to win every game from now on and have to destroy Dolphins to get confidence ahead of a tricky battle versus Colts.

 

The lines vary pretty much from bookie to bookie at the time of writing the preview and we believe the -12.5 offered by Betsson won’t last for very long.

It's important to search worth the best line/odds depending on your location. Don't settle for just a few bookies! Pinnacle  only have 1.74 available. -12.5 indeed is a too low handicap here no matter how you look at it! Chargers were 15.5 points favorites on the road versus the Dolphins. This means they would have been almost 20 points faves if the game took place in LA.  Right after the Steelers had beaten Chargers IN LOS ANGELES! Weird.. There’s more -  Cowboys were 20 + points favorites at home against Dolphins back in week 3 this season.. Just think about that! And hmm.. the Bills also were much more heavy faves on the betting market than Steelers are on market tonight just last week.

 

So to sum up we have a classic juicy situation betting-wise here. A slightly unlucky and under-performing yet pretty capable and still motivated team versus a lame, unmotivated team that has over-performed in recent games against low-quality teams. Rudolph is expected to return  after a nasty looking concussion but  the visitors are missing the starting center and the best safety of their otherwise bad secondary. The correct line should be something like -17 here.

 

BET ON Steelers -12.5, with Betsson, odds 1.91 (US -110). Our probability estimation 59%

October 20  Seattle Seahawks vs Baltimore Ravens

Taking the home advantage into account this current line of -3 1.90 - 1.90  reflects that the two teams are pretty equal. But are they really? Let's take a quick look..


Ravens will miss their best receiver, and their secondary is still banged up. Seahawks will go the game without left tackle Brown, this will hurt them a lot for sure. Luckily for the hosts but they will go a against more or less a non existent Ravens' edge rush. All others are expected  to step to the field, albeit the long-term  missing players.

If Wilson keeps performing on the high level has done so far, Seahawks are a top-10 team for team in our NFL ranking at the moment. We are more negative on Ravens than the betting market  - they are not among  top-10 and we see Seahawks one level better in "raw class". Without Brown, Jackson won't have too many match ups to take advantage of, Seahawks like to use  base packages a lot, and the middle linebacker is clearly  the best unit of their defense. That's why we don't think  Ravens' run game will take this one over.


On the other side of the ball, Ravens have big challenges with the edge rush, middle linebackers. The best unit of the team is banged up which is a big minus for them. Bigger than some bettors seem to realize. We don't think Ravens can stop Wilson!
This line should be -4.5 based on power ratings and injuries. We expect the odds to go down before the game starts - take the bet now!  We have very impressive stats in NFL and are not saying this is a super big value, but should not me missed. We placed our bets on Seahawks -3.5 at 2.12 right before posting this preview on the website.

 

 

BET ON Seattle Seahawks -3.5 odds 2.12 with Pinnacle, estimation 55%

 


 

 

29 September 2019 Steelers vs Bengals

 

We won with Steelers (+6.5 points) last week and now there is value on them as favorites. Let’s see why..

 

First let’s take a look at Bengals' offense. There seems to be a weakness/problem with the edge protectors, whereas the interior of the line is a passable unit. The Steelers however have perhaps the best defensive interior in the whole NFL! Both edge rushers Watt and Dupree have great match ups here.

 

Dalton might get some favorable match ups here and there in the rare occasions he is comfortable in the pocket. But unluckily for The Bengals Green is out. Can Dalton be creative enough to exploit the few weak corners Steelers have consistently? We have our doubts.

 

Let’s take a look at how it looks like when Steelers have the ball. Bengals have a pretty okay defensive line, but rest of the defensive unit is low level, worse than many bettors and bookies seem to realize. And to make things even worse, that defensive line, which is by far the best unit of the team is banged up and lacks depth. In addition to that Pittsburgh Steelers still have a better than average line Foster perhaps being the weakest link.

 

Rudolph’s not so great performance in the previous game versus 49ers was probably the main reason why Steelers lost the very tight encounter by 4 points. However we have to remember that he is unexperienced, expected enhance his game by game and also 49ers' defense, pretty surprisingly really, is the second best defense of the league after the first three weeks according to DVOA.

 

Rudolph was passable against Seahawks even though he was rushed into the action. A very challenging situation indeed. Seahawks’ defense is clearly better than Bengals' unit. He had a wonderful pre-season and had great rapport with receivers Washington and Johnson. Our NFL team expects to see a much more solid performance at home after one additional week to prepare mentally for his now “chance of a lifetime” situation.

 

By now it might sound like we see Steelers as huge favorites. This of course is not the case and odds for them are about 1.57 with many major bookies. This is a big game for Bengals, as it's a divisional game against a dear enemy in the prime time. This is a poor argument for adding any % on the estimation on Bengals to win as it's at least, perhaps even bigger as big as for Steelers. They have to win this or their season is pretty much ruined. Achieving anything after being 1-3 might seem challenging but let's not forget the leaders of AFC North have a record of 2-2. Indeed, nothing is really over!

 

To sum up Steelers are the better team by a pretty wide margin we like their match ups all around the field as well. This is something the bookies don’t seem to take into account enough tonight. Bengals don't have the tools to attack Steelers' weaknesses and their few strong units won't for sure have an edge against Steelers' respective units.

 

BET ON Steelers at the odds of 2.05 with Coolbet, 2.04 with Pinnacle, probability estimation 56%

22 September 2019 San Francisco 49ers vs Pitssburg Steelers

The last time the San Francisco 49ers started a season winning all the 3 fist games was back in 1998 when the team eventually finished 12-4 and made it all the way to divisional round, eventually losing to the Atlanta Falcons. They have a great chance today as they start as favorites against the Steelers. But is there value available for a serious bettor in this match..

 

Both NFL fans and bettors must be thinking can the Pittsburgh Steelers without veteran quarterback Ben Roethlisberger challenge the 49ers? As most of us probably know they lost Roethlisberger to an elbow injury. Now it’s Mason Rudolph’s time to shine!  It will be very interesting to see what he is capable of. Our NFL analysts her at Valuebetting.info believe Rudolph is better than the market on many experts think.

Rudolph isn’t the only big piece of pretty big news for the Steelers. They did, to our slight surprise to be honest, send off a lucrative package to the Miami Dolphins in exchange for up-and-coming defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick who should play for the Steelers today.

 

Let’s not forget Rudolph has a great offensive line in front of him, 49ers' edge rush is banged up and the secondary is not among one of the better units in the league neither.

On the other side of the ball, 49ers will miss Staley, a significant loss, and we don't expect their running game to click against Steelers' very solid defensive interior. Garoppol did seem like his old self against Bengals, but I can't imagine Steelers' having such a heartless game on the verge of wasting their whole season!  We actually think there is a real chance Steelers to win the battle at both sides of the trenches, which in general is a great sign to back an underdog.

 

Also let's keep in mind Steelers had a much stronger competition so far and the market indeed over-rates the 49ers and under-rates the Steelers, perhaps Rudolph in particular here. The current (handicap) line suggests that the 49ers would even be  slight favorites if the game was in Pittsburgh! After over 15 years of analyzing NFL we say that this can’t be right. We like Steelers' chances to keep this game at least in a score  and give a fight until the final whistle.  We have backed Steelers to win as  well  but the handicap bet +6.5 is the official recommended free pick here.  This pick  was posted to premium service subscriber earlier today as well. You can say what you want to say about Steelers' coaching and for sure it’s not top-level but we don't have any doubt to see them focused with their best play on the field today!

 

BET ON the the Pittsburg Steelers  +6.5, odds 1.952 ( US -105) with Pinnacle, estimation 60%. Bigger than average value in NFL.

 

29 September 2017 Green Bay vs Chicago

This might well be an old school game between two bitter NFC North rivals.
We have done pretty well (before Valuebetting.info was launched) in opposing the Bears on home soil in recent years. They have been terrible at Soldier Field, less so on the road which bookies seem to forger and backing the Packers when their backs were against the wall, circumstances where quarterback Aaron Rodgers tends to thrive and we have lost count of the number of times he has hauled his team mates almost single handedly onto his broad shoulders and carried them over the line. Most recent was last weekend, when Green Bay struggled to move the ball on the ground against the Bengals who looked lost and clueless heading into that game and trailed by 14 points at half time, but won with a FG in overtime. They were previously outplayed by the Falcons of course no shame in that and struggled to get much going versus the Seahawks, they are 2-1, but it could easily be 1-2 or even 0-3 and they started slowly last season (4-6) before winning their last six.


Rodgers looks up against it tonight, or rather "on his own" as his offensive line is decimated with all five either out, or serious doubts and, with the only two possible starters, not having played a snap this season and few in pre season. Given that the Bears kept Big Ben Roethlisberger to 235 yards through the air over more than four quarters and Le'Veoun Bell and co to only 70 on the ground in an overtime win over the Steelers, that augurs well for the Bears. Chicago also kept the Falcons close in week  one, level at the half and losing by two field goals giving up almost nothing to Freeman and Coleman on the ground. They kept two of the best offenses in the NFL very quiet there and can do likewise against another, lacking protection today. 


Chicago did come unstuck against Tampa Bay, but quarter back Mike Glennon had spent the previous three seasons with the Bucs and that was not a good early season match up for him. That was an odd game, it was all though the air for Chicago and it just seemed they really didn't play to their strengths. Against the Steelers they ran for 222 yards and Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen looked unstoppable, both avergaing over 6 yards per carry, they were similarly effective against Atlanta, but that was a more balanced offense for Chicago, with GB ranked outside the top 20 at stopping the run after three games, it is easy to see the Bears being able to move the ball on the ground and they will be expected to try to do that. However, Glennon has an arm, has not been helped by a few dropped passes, but is assisted today by GB expecting the run and we might see more attempted big plays from Chicago. NFL is all about balance and keeping teams guessing, if they know what you are doing or are likely to do, it is very hard to succeed with teams so well coached. Both teams will be tired after overtime and a quick turnaround, which also makes going with the points the obvious option.

Bet on Chicago Bears +7.5 1.90 with Pinnacle, estimation 59%