October 18 ATP Moscow Adrian Mannarino vs Dusan Lajovic
Why we think this preview really is worth your time and money
10.6 % yield, 401 verfied picks, Pinnacle odds on:
Wow, this must be one of the biggest overlays in tennis for several weeks!
Dusan Lajovic. A guy who has improved his game a lot during the past a couple of years. He was clearly the better player against the big serving Lukas Rosol in his previous match despite losing the second set in 6-7. The bookies have set him as a clear underdog against Adrian Mannarino on Wednesday. We not sure if he should be an underdog at all. After a long consideration we estimate he has a some 47-48% chance of winning here.
Mannarino has had a pretty easy draw so far beating Dzumhur and Kukushkin. Neither of these players is in great form and Mannarino has impressive head-to-head statistics against both. Yes, we are aware of the fact that the Serb's record is against big servers is bad, but Lajovic we must remember Lajovic has defeated Mannarino in both of their previous meetings (indoor and outdoor hard). Overall Dusan has done great against he always tricky left-handers. Let's take a closer look at his stats versus lefties: Lajovic has won 6 of his last 7 main level matches on all hard courts against lefties, like Mannarino. During his career he has grabbed 10 wins and lost 5 times against left- handers.
We really have a hard time trying to understand the odds here. Probably the bookies remember last year (too) well. Mannarino surprised everybody by making the final here in Moscow in Moscow a year ago. Yes, he did play well but that was than and we do not put too much emphasis on that statistic. It was in fact only his fourth semi final appearance in over 40 tournaments! After Moscow last year he has not made even quarter final in 5 indoor hard tournaments in a row. In the big picture we can also see that Mannarino has not done well on indoor hard over the years and has unimpressive hold/break total.
BET ON LAJOVIC +3.5 games, best odds with a reliable bookie: 1,82 with Pinnacle.com
October 3 Challenger Campinas Bellucci vs Mayer (played on clay)
Normally over is not such a great option on clay. However these two players are the type of players, who are able to keep a high percentage of their serves. Neither is a great returner And yes, of course Bellucci’s career is in pretty deep decline which is a risk for this bet. Bellucci has a great forehand with topspin whereas Mayer has a powerful backhand. Having deep and strong strokes is crucial on clay.
The match is played in Brazil so Bellucci should have some additional boost and motivation! Mayer however can be pretty lazy in smaller tournaments. – he does need the points here though. Bellucci must and we expect he will fight hard here. There should not be too much pressure on him from the crowd as they also know how hard it has been for him the past a couple of years.
Looking at previous matches on clay the totals line has been like 22,5 games. of course. as said before, Bellucci also was a different player 3+ years ago. For some unknown reason bet365 usually offers the best (over) lines and odds for Challenger tournaments - especially in the later stages of the season. Well, take advantage of this clearly too low line.
BET ON over 20.5, odds 1.91 with bet365, estimation 59%
Post match comment: Mayer withdrew
September 3 Men's US Open
Expect a pretty fine match here despite the fact that Medvedev must be fatigued. He is no robot after all.. Some analysts say Medvedev is close to physical collapse but the same has been said multiple times and I do not quite buy this. He is a young top athlete!
Let's see how has the tournament gone so far.. Well, Daniil has been struggling since the start of the US OPEN 2019 more than perhaps expected and was perhaps a bit lucky to avoid really good players on his way so far. Don't get fooled by the fact that Daniil dropped only one set in his last three matches and his opponents were Dellien (Medvedev was cramping in fourth set in this match but did manage to grab a win because mostly thanks to the fact that Hugo is very poor on hard. In fact he hardly ever beats even top500 player on this surface! Against Lopez it was tough match that could have gone to 5th set.. Respected analysts like the Unibet columnist Sean Calvert backed Lopez at below 3.00 odds there - and that was for a reason.
After escaping with a win against Dellien Medvedev faced Koepfer and had to work harder than expected to win. It's also worth noticing that Medvedev also had tapes on his abductor muscles and right shoulder, he was painful after the match against Lopez and had to take heavy painkillers before playing in the fourth round.Yes, he can play for sure but our tennis team also I thinks he has probably has played a bit too much tennis lately. A breakthrough run in Washington, Montreal and Cincinnati has price tag on it.
Stanislas Wawrinka, often under-rated by the bookies, the (eternal) Swiss nr.2 is a GRAND SLAM WINNER, let's remember this. He is a man who always play on his best level in big matches like at final stages of Slams played best match against Djokovic so far. He was fresh, confident and motivated! Stan's backhand was not top-level though but he can improve it. Good news for Stan and our bet is that Koepfer was overpowering Medvedev for most of the time and Stan has even more power and experience. Not to mention mental strength.
Not trying to undermine Daniil at all here. He is a clever player and can modify his game plan like he did versus Koepfer ( he started playing more aggressive and taking the ball earlier, he will try this vs Stan today too but will it be enough - we have our bets. Wawrinka is 2 classes better than Koepfer in all areas of the game. We just think Medvedev will have to come up with something "new and wild" to hang on here (but don't know what it could be really. Enough of his body - is he a Grand Slam winner..? Well, we think not for quite some time. The crowd is against him too. Unlike some amateur analysts say, this a NOT a positive "booster" for him in the long-run! For those who don't know Medvedev had a "clash" with the crowd and is now probably still gonna be having fun provoking. What an immature guy!
Stan is the clear fave here, estimation 66%, 1.78 available with Sbobet.com
August 20 ATP Winston-Salem Sandgren vs A. Murray
This pick is
This pick is mostly against Murray although Sandgren is often under-rated by bookies I did see Andy's match against Gasquet and A. Murray a legend and Olympic gold medal winner from London is far from his best. He is not healthy and one might wonder why is he still playing tennis and didn't retire to do other things in life.
There is extensive data a to support my gut feeling that usually it's often a really good going against guy who has been out for 6 months or more. Of course the bookies know as much as our tennis team about Andy's situation. However, there is a lot of recreational money in tennis these days and I believe some bettors don't understand how much Andy's level of play has has come down from his best days.. If we take a look at the stats from the match against Gasquet we can see Murray was quit good on 1st serve as usual.Perhaps playing doubles maybe has help him? However, his 2nd serve, and player like Sandgren can take advantage of that for sure. So If Andy wants to upset Sandgren here he will have to serve very well! And yes I do rate Tennys as the fave here, estimation 54%
Unfortunately odds have been dropping for Sandgren - our team also missed the best early odds due to putting most of our efforts on making soccer analyses, something tha is even more important for our business (and for our customers than tennis) Our team thinks Sandgren's style pf play is pretty well-suited to match Andy's He is verysolid from the baseline. A counter puncher like he likes to call himself. He can hit lot of balls back and test Andy's fitness. Andyto retire here would not be a big surprise, so better to bet on Sandgren to win, no handicaps.
Tennys has often done well in these "warm up tournaments" before Slams. Compare his recors to say Paire's, who is a better player by raw class.. Tennys has nothing really to defend next week in US Open so he will give 100% here!
BET ON: Sandgren to win, odds 2.20 with William Hill,
or 2.18 with Pinnacle if you too are limited with William Hill, the estimation is 54%.
March 11 ATP Simon - Thiem
We don't think Thiem deserves to be this short here. He started poorly this season and seems to lack confidence. Dominic has just 4/4 win-loss record so far, he also suffered some physical problems in Melbourne and in Rio de Janeiro. Thiem beat Thompson 6-4 7-5 in his first match here. His performance was nothing special as Jordan isn't exactly that kind of player who could challenge Thiem. But still it was a pretty even match and the Austrian needed to save several break points to win in straight sets.
Simon definitely is a threat to Thiem, much more than Thompson was. Thiem does lead 8-2 in h2h, but these matches were almost always pretty tight one and now Dominic isn't in strong form at all. Simon had to play a marathon to beat Jaziri in the second round, it was a quite a tiring match, but luckily Simon has had a day off here. In normal conditions we can expect a lot of rallies from the baseline between these two guys. Thiem is prone to make some mistakes too much when doesn't have big confidence in his game and Simon, being a wall, a great returner is great to force his opponents to hit some extra balls. We think this match is about most 62% - 38% for Thiem. We go for the safer option here with handicap but you can bet on Simon at the odds of some 3.15 that are widely available.
Bet on Simon +3.5 games 1.96 with -> Pinnacle.com, estimation 55%
Djokovic vs Kohlschreiber
Bet on Kohlschreiber +5.5 games 1.775 with ->Pinnacle.com, estimation 62%
Carballes-Baena +4.5 games 1.826 with ->Pinnacle.com, estimation 60%, free pick stake $100.
Harrison has done nothing to justify being a big fave.. Might be a tight one.
On this bet Pinnacle have clearly the best odds, way better than any other well-known bookie. They won't restrict your account even if you win big! -
3 more value picks found, this time on ATP tennis
Fratangelo +3.5 games 1.99 with Pinnacle, estimation 55% $110 WON
Gerasimov 2.14 with Pinnacle, estimation 51% $90 LOST
Gojowczyk +3.5 games 1.98 with Pinnacle, estimation 54% $100 WON
March 2 Bambridge /O'Mara $120 2.06 with Pinnacle WON
Australian open final 2019 Djokovic vs Nadal
Clash of the titans. An epic battle. War.
But is there a favorite or value available in this match? Let's start by taking a look at some statistics first. So it's clash number 53 of this career series, in which Djokovic holds a slight lead 27-25 and 14-5 on outdoor hard. For our team and most likely for many tennis fans this one is perhaps the most eagerly anticipated for some time. It’s their first meeting at a hard court major since the 2013 US Open final (won by Nadal) and based on the level each man showed in their respective semi finals it’s one not to be missed.
Nadal seems to have found something extra during the off season. He has built a much more aggressive mindset on serve and going for much more on his ground strokes earlier in rallies than we’re used to seeing from him. The challenge for Rafa here is that Novak the best returer in the world. Nadal destroyed the Greek youngster Stefanos Tsitsipas aside with ease in their semi final. Novak Djokovic was even more dismissive of a poor Lucas Pouille in the second of the men’s semis. That was true butchering! Pouille was not as his best but he is good player and there was just nothing he could do as Novak was so dominant.
Both of the tennis titans good match-ups but it’s the way that Nadal has gone about his business this week, taking the attack full on to the opposition. Somehow look similar to Rafa's great run at the 2013 US Open. Novak had a bad year in 2018 and even rught before this tournament he struggled with Basilashvili (dropped a set) and lost to Bautista-Agut so his great level in Melbourne has been a slight surprise indeed.
Ahead of this match fans, bookies and bettors are thinking why has Rafa started to adopt a style of play that keeps the points shorter, or perhaps it’s a style that he’s taken thinking that it’s the way to beat Djokovic and other future) top players outside clay where Rafa is still the king. Rafa has some 3-4 years left of his career probably he had to make some changes to remain truly competitive.
Whatever it is it has worked, with Nadal holding serve at stunning 97.5% of the time this week. He has also been great returning and has been breaking 39.2% of the time for a combined hold/break total of 136.7, which is off the charts! A number almost never seen. Even 120 would be an amazing number.
Djokovic, while seemingly bursting into life in that impressive win over Pouille, has also produced some stellar numbers in Melbourne. He has held 90.3% of the time and breaking 44.8% of the time for an equally impressive total of 135.1!
Although those stats are only from six matches they’re still amazing, almost unbelivable, and as if to try and outshine Nadal’s super semi final show there was Djokovic bringing it all to the court against Pouille, I'll say it again, is a very good tennisplayer. Novak dropped only eight(!!!) points on serve all match.
Given the way that this pair have evolved and Nadal in particular changing his style of play this tournament their previous head-to-heads aren’t that relevant. In general head-to- heads are often over-rated in tennis. Our team's main concern with both players on Sunday is actually fitness. This factor is always hard to estimate but here it adds a small extra element of uncertainty to the probability estimation.
Nadal hasn’t gone past three sets and two hours and 22 minutes all fortnight. He had no competitive matches under his belt since last September due to injuries. Rafa never gives up but hasn’t been tested physically yet. We will see tomorrow..
It's not 100% with Novak either. He looked to be wilting pretty badly against Medvedev and he said to the press “I didn't feel so great, you know, in the last 20 minutes of the match or so. It was just, you know, a little bit of fatigue, a little bit of back.”
So, question marks over the fitness of both, perhaps, and it will be interesting to see whether against a great returner Nadal can keep up his fine serving, as I’m sure he won’t get as many easy forehand putaways as he’s been enjoying all week.
Another question is whether Nadal will be able to keep the points as short as he has against other opponents this tournament, probably not. He has also been hitting a fair few clean winners on the backhand side and his volleying has been excellent as well, something sometimes overlooked by even the best bookies.
One of our assistants noticed that he favourite has won in 15 of the last 16 matches between this pair but today we can't find a favorite for this clash. We don't normally comment other analysts' picks too much but maybe now it's worth mentioning that many succesful analysts rate this 50-50, some giving a very sight advantage on one player.
If you like and your bookie allows you to place special bets it's worth noticing that Nadal with his new service motion, has hit more aces per game this tournament than Djokovic. Nadal 0.49 and Novak 0.45). There are odds of over of 3.00 on Nadal available. That is maybe small value but we won't include that here in our official picks.
Bet on Nadal 2.16 with Pinnacle.com, estimation 50%
Australian Open Ladies' Final 2018 Naomi Osaka vs Petra Kvitova
Wow, one of our most profitable players, a "money machine" Naomi Osaka has reached the final again! Is it time for her 2nd Grand Slam title? Lets's take an in-depth look in one of the longest reviews on tennis for a while.
These two players are the most in-form ones on the WTA tour at the moment so we are likely to see a very good match. Naomi Osaka is Japanese (in reality more American) by her own words, ranked 4th in the world, and the holder of the US Open trophy from 2018 las year. She will face an lot more experienced Czech Petra Kvitova, who is ranked 6th. The winner here will take first place in the ranking! That would be the first time for both players so in this adds some extra motivation for sure. Of course the prize money for the winner is a lot as well.
As major sporting events attract a lot of reacrational bettors and people who just enjoy watching sports to our website we have produced a long preview with more facts and statistics than normally. Naomi Osaka is a 21 years old lady from Japan, 1.80 meters tall and plays with the right-handed forehand combined with a double-handed backhand. She is trained by Sascha Bajin, a coach whom most tennis fans are not that familar with since 2018. They have won two titles together, the Indian Wells Masters and the US Open Slam. A famous and emotional match against the legend of women's tennis, Serena Williams.
Osaka's aggresive and confident play is really fun to watch although in general men's tennis is of better quality. Osaka is indeed a very aggressive baseline player hardly ever playing "safe". She has huge raw power in her shots, even more now than say a year ago. She excels in the forehand and maybe even service department. Her serves can go over an impressive 195 km/h which is definite top-level on the WTA tour. Her playing style is based on her power, which allows her hit a lot of winners. During the past 2 years she has become more patient on the court and has learned to buildi up points to the level of hitting a winner. The best improvement, by far, in our opinion, is in her mental strength. This is a often problematic area for young players especially in WTA but also in ATP. Naomi has stated publicly: 'Since I was working with Bajin - and I tend to be a bit negative on myself - I feel like I’ve gotten a little bit more optimistic. I fight myself a lot, so he's sort of been, like, the peacemaker.' A world-class coach is indeed crucial to young player's development. We will write an article on this topic in March.
Petra is a very solid Czech tennis player aged 28. She has been playing at the top level of WTA for 10 years now and has won in her two Slam titles in Wimbledon in 2011 and 2014. In addition to the two Slam titles she also has won an amazing 24 other titles. She took her first title back in 2009 in Hobart, and lasest this year in Sydney. This shows a great consistency and quality for over 10 years! So today it will be raw talent versus experience and top-level mental strength. Petra Kvitova, the slight underdog today in our opinion is even taller than Osaka, 1.82m tall and uses the left-handed forehand combined with the double-handed backhand. She has been coached by a decent former pro player Jiri Vanek since 2016. With Vanek she has won Wuhan and WTA Elite Trophy in 2016, Birmingham in 2017, Birmingham, Madrid, Prague, Doha and St. Petersburg in 2018and Sydney this year. Impressive.
Kvitova’s playing style is in a way similar to Osaka’s as she is using her power to hit thru her opponents. Her biggest weapons are her lefty serve and her huge forehand. The fact that she also hasa very good backhand has made her one of the greatest players of the past 10 years. However, due to her high risk, aggressive style of play she is known to produce quite a high number of unforced errors in matches sometimes costing her matches that she seemed to control. Movement is another, in fact a rather serious, weakness hindering her. She has has shown significant improvement with her movement during the last couple of years though but to be honest there still is room for development and we believe Kvitova will as at 28 sheis not too old to do that.
Neither of these two players has excelled so far in the Australian Open tournament so in the sense it is a slight surprise that they made it to the final. Osaka played in Melbourbe only 3 times prior to this final, and she never got past the Round 4. In 2018 she lost to Halep in the round 4 despite playin very well. Petra, on the other hand, has played the Aussie Open since 2008 and her best result was the semifinal lost to the best-earning female tennis player Maria Sharapova in 2012. Since that year she has never got past the 3rd round. She quite surprisigly lost to Robson in 2013, Kumkhum in 2014, Keys in 2015, Gavrilova in 2016, and Petkovic in 2018. She looked extremely disappointed especially in 2016 after the defeat, maybe lacking some confidence to really make it in Melbourbe. At that time it was hard to believe she would ever make the final in the Aussie Open. In 2017 she missed the action in Melbourne because of that well-known injury she had. For those who are not active tennis followers and do not know the story - she was stabbed by a robber in her hand. She is lucky to still play prossional tennis!
Overall Kvitova has an impressive record in Slam matches with 99 wins and 41 losses. Osaka, on the other hand, has a lot shorter professional career in tennis and has only 35 wins and 12 losses. Osaka has won 17 matches in Slams and lost only two during the past year! "Wow" is all we can say about that. She also has won now 13 consecutive Slam matches as she won US Open 2018. What a run!
Osaka had, arguably, the harder draw to in this tournament. She defeated Sevastova, Svitolina, and Pliskova on the way to the final. Kvitova has faced only one top15 player to get to the final, Ashley Barty.
The stats during Australian Open 2019 show that Kvitova has performed on a magnificent level, having a combined hold-break % of 141.18% during her first 6 matches. She also had 3 matches where she didn’t lose her serve at all. This is rather unseen on the WTA tour where breaks are alot more common than in men's´tennis. Her best performance taking a look at the stats was against Anisimova, where she had an almost 163% combined hold - break %. An amazing number! Amazing is that she also has lost her serve only 4 times in 6 matches. Kvitova managed to win all her matches in straight sets and has spent 7 hours and 13 minutes on court.
Osaka’s stats aren't quite as great as Kvitova's, but as we just pointed out she has had a lot tougher opposition and that’s why she couldn't have had such numbers. She has a 122% hold - break total, which is top level, and considering she played against two top10 players, and Sevastova who is also a very good player her stats are awesome too. Osaka won 3 matches in straight sets and three matches in 3-setters and stayed on the court a total of 9 hours. We don't believe neither player will be fatigued at here despite the heat. We don't take fatigue/ fitness into consideration when calculating the probabilities for this match which is rare in long tournements like this.
As we see, both of the players had held serve in amazing numbers, Osaka with 81% and Kvitova with 92%, but also broke serve very often- We can expect them to fight off the baseline, as both of them are aggressive baseliners, and hence see a lot of service holds with both protecting their huge serves with rather attacking tennis. Winners will likely be on the double-digits in every set, but we expect them to force the attacks a bit, so there will be a lot of unforced errors. The fact that Osaka possesses an amazing backhand will make her able to resist to the lefty cross forehand, while the backhand-down-the-line of her, will do a lot of damage for we think as we seen in all matches she played so far.
To sum up we do expect a long, tight match. It will very intense, even en emotional one too. I doubt that any of these two can win this in easilly or collapse mentally no matter what happens.
Wow, what a long preview. The most important thing: We will have two bets on this match. The expected value here is just medium so be careful with your stake.
Osaka to win 2.13 Sbobet.com, estimation 51%
Over 21.5 Games 1.83 with Pinnacle.com, estimation 59%
Oct XXXXWTA Beijing Osaka -1.5 sets 2.04 with 188bet.com, estimation 54% LOST
June 20 2018
Sugita to beat Thiem 4.2 with Bethard, estimation 30% WON!!!!!!!
King to beat Stakhovsky 3.5 with 5dimes.com, estimation 35%
June 7 2018
Stakhovsky vs Ramanathan Over 22.5 Games
Bet365, 1.9 estimation 58%
ATP Challenger 17January 2018
Balazs to beat Hurcazs 5.00 with 5dimes, estimation 26%
Aussie Open picks for 16 January 2018
1. Verdasco/Dogig 2.05 with Interwetten, estimation 55%
2. Kokkinakis vs Medvedev Tie break in the match YES with 1.6 Bwin,
estimation 67% WON
3. Nicolas Kicker total Under 14 games vs Jordan Thompson with 1.88 Pinnacle , estimation 58%
4.Jeremy Chardy vs Tennys Sandgren Over 36.5 games 1.90 with Pinnacle , estimation 57%
5. Feliciano Lopez vs Sam Querrey Over 40 games 1.89 Pinnacle with Pinnacle, estimation 57%
6. Sonego to beat Haase 4.6 with 10bet, estimation 29%
WTA Tennis 24 March 2017 Halep vs Osaka
These two have met once before, at Roland Garros last year, it is an often discussed match among serious tennis bettors solely because of the great impression the then 18 years old Naomi Osaka made that day.
Naomi Osaka is a true talent and who knows what she is capabe in the next few years. If she is even half the player we think she will really challenge Halep here. We see her as only a small underdog . Osaka made the 3rd round in Australia in her slam main event debut and has already beaten Jelena Ostapenko who is well know to Valuebetting.info customers and Mijana Lucic-Baroni who was coming from the Strasbourg final last week. For sure Osaka is still work in progress, the bigger the stage the better for her, even at this early stage of her career. Something that is not seen very often.
Osaka's serve is pretty amazing and often she was has not even been making the most of it, barely jumping into it and there is huge improvement and potential to come in an already good looking game. It's hard to believe that sh is she not ranked in the top10 but she only turned 19 five months ago and is still a "baby" in tennis terms.
Indeed,Osaka clearly loves the big stage, she thrived in Paris, played well in the US Open and made a late season final in Tokyo, where interest in her is through the roof and is no shrinking violet on court, who will go into her shell regardless of the occasion. She is 4-6 versus top 20 ranked players, which given her stage of development is hugely encouraging and three of the last four of those defeats all went the distance, which further emphasizes what a big game player she probably already is. There are a few negatives we could discuss, but they are minor and do not detract from the fact she has the world at her feet and was voted newcomer of last year, but now needs to kick on.
Osaka is very personable off court, but is ultra aggressive and business like on court. Something our team loves in a tennis player. at present, there is many true weaknesses about her game, when she is good, she is close to unstoppable, she does, however, has to learn to win when facing a little more difficult day.
She gave an interview in Dubai , her last start on tour and spoke about how she is trying to relax and play with the bigger picture in mind and not overly worry about individual matches.
“I feel that I’m working on a few things and I need time to adjust to how that is. I feel I have to mature a little bit more and everything is a little bit of a new experience still. "This is the first time I’ve played this tournament, I’m actually happy I won a round."
“I’m the type of player that has to keep doing certain things no matter if I’m losing or not, just to practice it. I’m supposed to be looking to win the tournament not win the match. So like the bigger picture other than just winning this match, I have to think about how I’m going to play in the future. I want to develop into a player that is like an all-rounder that is very aggressive.”Very much a work in progress, but I expect a big breakthrough this year at some stage.
Osaka won two matches at Indian Wells, but lost in the round of 32 to Maison Keys, she has already won this week in her home state and adapted to the change in conditions and will be looking to defend her points here from 12 months ago and probably hoping and believing in better.
Simona Halep is a fine tennis player, we must not forget about this. She lost to Shelby Rogers in Round 1 of the Australian Open, then withdrew ahead of her second match in St. Petersbourg and didn't play again until Indian Wells where she beat Donna Vekic, but then lost 3 & 3 to Kristina Mladenovic. Last year she played both Dubai and Dohai in build up to the US swing and she has been dealing with knee issues and that has to come under consideration and are a concern. Also, her grandfather passed away last week, she said that they were close and that causes additional sadness when you are so far from home. She has been struggling with her serve too so for sure not the best situation for her today. Amazing value on the young star Osake.
Bet on Osaka +3.5 games with Pinnacle.com, estimation 57% 2.05