Barrios vs Kovalik
In tennis betting it is often better to go with the favorite, espcially in Grand Slams but today there is without a doubt value in the slight underdog. Let's take a quick look why..
Kovalik is of course the better-known player here and is clearly better ranked too but seems to be far from his best shape at the moment! He was in pretty big trouble versus Galan in the first round and had Galan played even a little better Kovalik would have lost. A disappointing performance from both players in that match. Barrios was better than expected in qualies in qualifying firing many aces and holding most of his service games with ease.
Playing in (South American) clay is something Barrios likes - even slower courts than courts in Cordoba would be his favorite surfacethough.. Tomas possesses nice, deep strokes, better than his pretty low ranking suggests and as mentioned is capable of serving well. Of course he will have to be able to maintaining the level he showed in qualies. If he does, this match is a coin toss ( 50%-50%) However Barrios of course does lack experience on ATP level and no player ranked outside top200 is that solid so we take the game handicap option here. A juicy situation in terms of value betting - an out of shape fave versus an under-rated low-ranked guy. Brave bettors can take Barrios to win at 2.57 with Matchbook or 2.55 with Betvictor.com (with a 100 euros welcome bonus). Estimation is 46%.
BET ON: Barrios +3.5 games, odds 1.77 with Piwi88.com (300e welcome bonus available, ask for it on the chat) They offer the same odds as Pinnacle
Ruusuvuori vs Sinner
Both youngster are very talented indeed. Sinner seems to have a bit more raw talent and should reach top5 by 2023 whereas Ruusuvuori we expect to become a solid top20 player in the future. Today the difference between both is very minimal, they are also similar especially in their mindset with that mature attitude on court. Ruusuvuori won the first pair's meeting last year and I'm looking for a balanced match, so yes I think the value is on Emil and this +1.5 sets looks solid stuff. We have been watching the Finn in all his matches in Miami, just good and consistent, he always played 3-setters in matchups that were anything but easy and held up well even to hot conditions. Beating Zverev should give Emil a huge boost.
Sinner seems struggle in physical matches and we think Emil is in better shape of the two. Jannik was bending after long rallies in his previous match and having a questionable body language throughout the encounter, but he still keep fighting and winning tough battles most of the time as happened against Khachanov in R3. Too solid from Ruusuvuori for Jannik to win in 2 sets.. We expect a tough battle where Sinner is of course the fave but value is in the Finn
BET ON: Ruusuvuori +1.5 sets, odds around 1.80 or +3.5 games around 2.00 can be found with many bookies online.