Key things in pro soccer betting overall:
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Basic power ratings for both teams (0-100)
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Understanding what expected goals (xG) mean
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Style of play - biggest strength and weaknesses
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Line ups -> update the power rating if you know how
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Motivation
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Home advantage vs average home in the league in question
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Pitch (grass, artificial turf etc)
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Weather (rain, snow, wind etc)
Go to" Pro strategies" for more info
Soccer is by far the second best sport for us money-wise with some 700-900 bets per year. The best is tennis. However the yield in NFL and Formula 1 has been even bigger than in tennis and soccer! Some picks contain detailed analysis followed by a probability estimation, based on which the expected value is determined. Some come with just the odds and where to place the bet.
Pinnacle is the most important betting account for a serious bettor but in many cases the top odds can be found with other bookies too. Compare the odds carefully before placing your bet!
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June 21 Spanish La Liga
Real Sociedad vs Real Madrid
Real look motivated, match-fit and and play as team - they play very good football overall. This was not the case for sure before the break! They seem to have a great team spirit now - something that has not always been the case for sure with this team full of sometimes arrogant and selfish (declining) world-class stars like G. Bale! Even Zinedine Zidane looked pretty relaxed and was even smiling during the match against Valencia which Real won with ease 3-0 - especially after the magnificent 2-0 goal by the M. Asensio who scored immediately after being injured for almost a year.
Bet on Real Madrid to win, odds 1.80 Dafabet (this is a clear market top. (Dafabet offer bonuses for some new clients)
Coolbet have 1.75 (tasty welcome and other bonuses for Nordic customers)
www.Librabet.com and www.Rabona.com are pretty new but still already quite big bookies. They offer odds of 1.74 and juicy bonuses and FREE bets for both new and existing customers.
For the most of the time big, well-known Asian style bookies like Pinnacle, Sbobet and 3ET have better odds on soccer than Librabet and Rabona BUT these two often offer tasty table tennis ( ping pong) odds with pretty high 100-400 euros limits and as mentioned before - better odds for Real Madrid at the moment!
Expect odds to go down before the event starts!
Chance of winning for Real Madrid is 62%
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Turkey Super Lig Jun 20
Denizlispor vs Beşiktaş JK Result 1-5
No spectators.
Besiktas are a "big", traditional club with great history. But they are in serious decline. Besiktas are often over-estimated by the bookies and bettors alike - perhaps because of past achievements, famous players and big number of fans, also abroad. However, this season is a huge struggle for them and now on top of it all they have lost the goalkeeper the "famous Champions League final failure" but still a talented goalkeeper Karius and don't have good replacement for him available.. Worrying for them. Besiktas have only slim chances for 4th place - so motivation is not probably 100%
Denizlispor, on the other hand, are nothing special of course but they need more points to be safe - the match should be pretty tight and value is on the hosts! Our team of pro analysts estimation is:
Home win 28%
Draw 29%
Away win 43%
Bet on Denizlispor +0.5 goals, odds 2.06 with 188bet, probability estimation (chance of winning) 57%
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Bulgarian Soccer Jun 20 Final Score: 3-3 - WON
PFC CSKA Sofia vs PFC Levski Sofia
Bet on over 2.5 goals, odds 2.90 with Betfair Sportsbook
Estimation 40%
Odds won't last long!
Serbian Super League Jun 19
FK Spartak Subotica - FK Napredak Final score:0-2
The best odds of 1.54 now available with www.Campobet.com (nice bonuses also for existing customers)
Sbobet have 1.53 and a 200 euros welcome bonus! ( Pls, click on the banner)
Chance of winning is 73%
Spanish La Liga Jun 17
CA Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid RESULT: 0-5
BET ON Atletico Madrid to win odds 1.86 with www.Campobet.com (nice bonuses, also for existing customers and www.Pinnacle.com (best odds of all the online bookies on average)
Chance of winning is 60%. Not super but still decent value as the difference in raw class is pretty big.
Jun 17 Faroe Islands Premier League
Skala vs TB Tvoroyri
Bet on Tvoroyri to win, odds 2.05 with Bwin, 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook, 1.99 Betcris
Probability estimation is 57%
Jun 16 German Bundesliga
Monchengladbach vs Wolfsburg
BET ON Wolfsburg +0.5 goals odds 1.85 with 3ET( Estimation 60%) You can access these market top odds thru www.Asianconnect.com
They also offer a welcome bonus of up to 400 euros for new customers!
Similar to Sportmarket that we have mentioned often before they are a bet broker offering multiple high-limit Asian bookie accounts with one customer account! A very good tool especially for heavy winners (who are limited with traditional bookies like bet365 or William Hill)
Check it out and grab the bonus here: www.Asianconnect.com
Jun 13 Poland 1st Division
MKS GKS Jastrzębie vs MKS Sandecja Nowy Sącz
BET on MKS GKS Jastrzębie to win, odds 2.16 with Pinnacle
Estimation 53%
Jun 13 Syrian soccer
Al Taliya SC vs Tishreen
Bet on Tishreen to win, odds 1.88 with Coolbet, estimation (chance of winning) 61%
Tishreen were not great last time winning only 1-0. This has effected the market/odds too much. The are superior in raw class.
Jun 10 Bulgarian first league
Arda Kardzhali vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Hosts in serious trouble lately. The coach is gone with many players etc.
BET ON Razgrad -2.5, odds 5.30 ( US odds +430) with Fonbet, estimation (chance of winning) is 29%. Expect some bookies to offer odds around 5.00 when they post handicap lines and odds!
bet365 have 4.50 (alternative handicap -2)
Jun 9 Bulgarian Cup
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
Bet on Sofia DRAW NO BET odds 2.37 with bet365, estimation (chance of winning) is 49%
Jun 6 German Bundesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 FINAL SCORE 0-2!
Bet on Mainz +0.5 (Asian handicap) odds 1.89 with 3ET, Sbobet have 1.87 (200 euros bonus for new customers)
Probability estimation (chance of winning) is 59%
IF you can still bet with Marathonbet, they offer odds of 3.82 on Mainz - better value than +0.5 at the odds of 1.89 but more risky. They have 0% margin on some Bundesliga games at the moment.
A preview possibly added later.
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Jun 3 German 3rd Liga
Hallescher FC vs TSV Eintracht Braunschweig
Bet on Braunschweig DRAW NO BET ( +0 ASIAN HANDICAP) odds 1.98 with Dafabet
Chance of winning is 57% FINAL SCORE: 0-1 - BET WON
Jun 3 Europe Friendly
NK Olimpija Ljubljana vs NK Nafta Lendava
Expect a pretty balanced match as Ljubljana have a young team today.
Bet on Lendava +0.5 handicap odds 1.97 on Dafabet, a clear market top
Chance of winning is 59% FINAL SCORE: 0-1 - BET WON
odds 1.88 with Unibet, 888sport, Leovegas
This pick was posted earlier to premium service subscribers
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4 picks May 23 Belarussian soccer, posted 00:32 GMT
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Division 2 FC Zhlobin - Dnepr Rohachev
Bet on FC Zhlobin 0.0, -0.5 (same as -0.25 Asian Handicap) odds 1.88 bet365, probability estimation 62%
Disivision 2 FK Chayka Zelva - FK Meliorator Zhitkovichi
Bet on over 5.5 goals, 2.40 with Betfair Sportsbook, estimation 49%
Division 2Dyush-3 Stenles Pinsk - Pershiy Regien
Bet on Regien +2.25 goals, odds 1.92 18bet, babibet, 65%
bet365 have 1.82
Women's Premier Zorka-BDU Minsk (w) - ABFF U19 (w)
Bet on ABFF +2.5 goals 1.62 Marathonbet, 73%
Pinnacle have 1.56
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Jeonbuk Motors (Corners) - Suwon Samsung Bluewings FC (Corners)
BET ON over 9.5 odds 2.56 with Pinnacle, estimation 46%
This match and most of our picks with valuable odds are available with many big Asian bookmakers that don't normally limit even highly profitable pro bettors. To benefit from many Asian bookies' odds and high limits with just one betting account check well-known and respected www.Sportmarket.com
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May 2 Belarussia Premier League: FC Ruh Brest - FC Gorodeya
BET ON FC Gorodeya +0.5 (Asian handicap), odds 2.01 with -> www.Pinnacle.com, estimation 57%. Almost 100% sure odds will go down before kick off!
,
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May 2 Belarussia Ladies' League Bobruichanka Women vs Neman Grodno Women
BET ON Neman Grodno Women -1.0 (1st Half Asian Handicap) odds 1.93 with bet365, estimation( chance of winning) is 61%,
You can also take -2.25 ( whole match) odds 1.90 also with bet365, but estimation there is only 60% so 1st half is a little better option.
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April 29 Belarussia: BATE Borisov vs Slavia Mozyr
Final corner score 8-2 - BET WON
BET ON OVER 9.5 (Asian Total Corners) odds 1.93 with bet365, estimation (chance of winning) 61%
A lot less with most bookies.
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April 6 Taiwan Hang Yuen vs NTUPES
(FINAL SCORE 2-0)
BET ON: Hang Yuen -1, -1.5 (-1.25) (Asian handicap) with bet365, odds 2.00, estimation is 57%
Lower odds with most bookies - bet365 will cut odds soon we believe!
April 25 Belarussia MKK-Dnepr Rohachev vs Gorki
Final score 1-1
BET ON: MKK-Dnepr Rohachev +0/0.5 (+0.25) (Asian handicap) odds 1.77 with 188bet, estimation is 64%.
Is your betting account limited or even closed with 188bet, bet365, William Hill etc?
Yes, we know..
It happens when you win too much are consistently bet on overlays (too high odds). A betting pattern bookies easily recognize and of course dislike.
This match and most of our picks with valuable odds are available with many big Asian bookmakers that don't normally limit even highly profitable pro bettors. To benefit from many Asian bookies' odds and high limits with just one betting account check well-known and respected www.Sportmarket.com
Odds will drop soon!
April 20 FC Ahal - Sagadam FK ( BET WON)
Final score 2-0
Bet on Under 2.5 odds 2.06 with Coolbet ( a famous and reliable Nordic bookie), less with most major bookies, probability estimation (estimated chance of winning) is 62%
April 18 Chinandega U20 - Deportivo Ocotal U20
Nicaragua has been a gold mine for us! Let's go for more!
BET ON OVER 5.5 goals, odds 2.55 with Coral and Ladbrokes, estimation (chance of winning) is 53%
2.40 with Betfair Sportsbook
Overall a lot less and dropping!
April 15 Real Esteli U20 - Diriangen U20
BET ON OVER 3.5, 4.0 (3.75) (Goal Line) odds 1.90 with bet365, estimation (chance of winning) is 62%. A little less with most bookies.
April 10 Neman Grodno vs Belshina Bobruisk
Value found AGAIN in Belarussian soccer for tomorrow
BET ON Neman Grodno to win, odds 2.14 with Marathonbet, probability estimation 54%, less with most major bookies and expected to be cut soon.
Recommended stake (1-10 units) is 6/10 at 2.14.
We recommend 0.3-0.4% of bankroll per unit.
April 8 Real Esteli - Juventus Managua
Bet on Real Esteli -1.0 (Asian Handicap) odds 1.80 with bet365, chance of winning is 64%
Or -1.5 odds 2.38 with William Hill, chance of winning 53%
April 5
Nicaragua Youth League:
Walter Ferretti U20 - Real Esteli U20
Bet on over 3.5 goals, odds 2.47 with Pinnacle,
Chance of winning: 47%
Odds will go down soon for sure!
Another pick posted soon if there is still value ( the pick is sent to premium service members first)
Why TRUST our picks? Are there 3rd party verified results, with serious bookies?
YES.
2238 VERIFIED FREE picks, with details, without registration, found here:
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So ROI IS 7% after 2238 picks
Imagine how much you can PROFIT with FREE picks alone? ;D
March 31
Belarussia:
RB Strikerz Minsk vs Stolica Minsk, 70 min play
Bet on Strikerz to win odds 1.57 with bet365, probability estimation is 70%.
RESULT: CANCELLED
Better odds with many local bookies, Spanish in particular =)
Byttorps IF v Södra Vings IF
Bet on over 1.5 goals first half, odds 1.85 with Ladbrokes and Eurobet, 65% is the estimation (chance of winning)
bet365 and 188bet have 2.01 on over 1.75, estimation 58%
RESULT: WON
March 17 2020
Argentina soccer:
CA Claypole vs CA Deportivo Paraguayo
Bet on Paraguayo +0.5 goals, odds 1.59 with -> Pinnacle, estimation is 70%,
Odds will drop, be fast.
RESULT: CANCELLED (CORONA)
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4 picks on Brazil lower leagues for Sunday Jan 26
Brusque vs Joinville
Bet on Brusque to win odd 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook, 1.98 Coolbet, estimation 63%
RESULT. WON
Amazonas FC vs International AM
Bet on Amazonas DRAW NO BET odds 1.83 Bet365, 66%
RESULT: PUSH
Batatais - Desportivo Brasil
Bet on D. Brasil to win, odds 2.00 with bet365, our estimation 57%
RESULT : lost
CSP - Atletico Cajazeirense
Atletico Cajazeirense to win, odds 2.05 with bet365, estimation 56%
RESULT: WON
Below 2 picks with GIGANTIC expected value. No use writing a long preview as odds will drop soon!
Greece soccer Jan 19 Doxa Dramas vs Apollon Pontou Kalamaria
BET ON Doxa Dramas (-2) (Handicap Result) odds 2.60 with bet365, estimation 51%, Kalamaria in serious financial trouble. Will field young players if they play at all!!! Odds will be slashed!
Post match comment: Event postponed and bets cancelled
Greece soccer Jan 19 Panachaiki vs Kerkyra
BET ON Panachaiki -1.0 (Alternative Handicap Result) odds 1.67 with bet365, 72%, Odds will drop!
Basically the same situation as with Kalamaria!!
odds will drop.
Kerkyra in serious financial trouble, young players will play ( if the the team plays at all..)
Turkey Super Lig Jan 19 2020 Besiktas vs Sivasspor
Besiktas, a traditional big club of course have been one of the best Turkish teams in the last a couple of decades and are the favorites to win this match. However the glory days seem to be behind for Besiktas, at least for this season. Their financial situation is not great to say the least and they are unable to buy new players add more (offensive) power to the team. Besiktas are a huge team and brand in Turkey and have fans (and people who like to bet on them) all over the planet! Of course their season has not been terrible not or a catastrophe and they are currently 5th in the Turkish Super Lig. For sure Besiktas are the favorites to win this match but the value, all we care about in betting, is definitely on Sivasspor. We will go for Sivasspor +0.5 goals. A sharp probability estimation will be available at the end of this preview.
Indeed, it's often, but not always, a good idea in betting in general to go against the big, word-class as well as on local well-known brands like Juventus, Real Madrid or Manchester United in betting, especially in handicap betting and in situations where the underdogs, Sivasspor in this case have shown solid play, especially solid defense. Indeed, Sivasspor have conceded only 16 goals so far this season. They have been better than we would have expected before the season and have also been a little lucky in terms of expected goals calculations I have made this season. However despite being the leaders in league the betting market doesn't not seem to value them enough. It's also possible bookies do know they play great soccer but they just don't attract that much betting money leaving the odds too high in many matches.. Most bookies need to adjust the odds based on the amount of money being placed on each outcome of the match to avoid too big risks/ risk positions.
So we have an offensively pretty ineffective Besiktas versus a solid defense and great fighting spirit. Besiktas seem to rely too much on individual skill. The situation has been the same pretty much the whole season. Besiktas do have skilled players, no denying that, but the fact is that they fail to clear too much scoring chances even at home, and taking a look at expected goals the 5th place they occupy at the moment is what they have deserved.
A few more words about Sivasspor. The leaders of Super Lig, Sivasspor, are a young team playing a very high-tempo football. Most of their players seem to be in awesome physical shape which can easily be seen during the last 10-15 minutes of the match. Their play well characterized by intricate passing - a true pleasure to watch! They have a very solid back four and a talented goalkeeper. Great tools for a winning team. All these facts mentioned above make them a very tough team to beat. Yandas' absence is a of course a big minus here and yet Sivasspor still have enough quality to make this close to a coin toss (50/50) match. To be honest I believe the market has over-rated the significance of Yanda's absence here. In general the betting market often over-rates the meaning of a key/star player. Yes, missing him lowers Sivasspor's chances in this match, but we get a lot higher odds in return. This is all about value and I'm happy to go with Sivaspor here against pretty hapless Besiktas.
Estimation: home win 42% - draw 28% - away win 30%
BET ON Sivaspor +0.5, estimation 58% odds 2.01 with -> Pinnacle
Odds around 2.00 on Sivasspor +0.5 goals (Asian handicap) widely available online. 28%+30%=58% on Sivasspor +0.5 goals (draw or Sivasspor win)
January 4 English soccer: Stockport vs Boreham Wood
Interesting early lines and odds opened by the bookies here! Indeed, We think the early lines were just based on the league table where both teams scored nearly the same but Stockport conceded more goals. The true class of these two teams is far from similar though. Let's take a quick look...
Stockport dominated the whole match against Halifax wasting lots of great chances. The team kept pressing on the whole match despite some stupid mistakes from defensive players. They definitely should be favored here in this incoming home match. Boreham Wood on the contrary was really bad in the recent games especially in yesterday's game they "created" several horrible mistakes in defense and offensive players seemed too afraid to break through and all the attack they delivered to Barnet were more or less boring, aimless long shots. Boreham players' visits on the in their opponent penalty area were very few. The home team in our soccer team's opinion should have at least 45% chance of winning here - 2.80 available with Pinnacle is great value and odds are likely to be cut soon! An old fact well-known among pro-bettors is " the lower the league the better the overlays" is very true with this event!
BET ON Stockport to win, odds 2.80 with -> Pinnacle.com
December 9 Argentina Super League Patronato vs Velez
Pretty solid value available here. Let's take a look why.. Under interim boss Martin De Leon, Patronato suffered a 2-0 away defeat at San Lorenzo last weekend. The team are winless in their last ten league matches - three draw and seven losses. The have scored lame 13 points in 15 games. and are seven points from safety. At home Patronato have collected only two points from the last 4 matches. Patronato will oversee the debut of coach G. Alvarez after Mario Sciacqua’s resignation. Let's see if he can give the traditional "new coach boost" to the team. Our team of analysts is pretty doubtful though.. L. Comas remains sidelined, as well as his usual replacement S.Rosales.
Velez Sarsfield is not in terrific form either to be honest. But their four-game winless run of three draws and a defeat in the league came to an end last time out in a match were they looked much improved to beating Colon 3-1 at home. As a result, El Fortin are now on 25 points and still only four behind legendary team Boca Juniors and Argentinos Juniors. Velez did lose their last away game at Banfield, which stopped a four-match unbeaten run of winning three times and playing a draw on the road. We give them a slightly over 50% of taking all three points today! So, Patronato have a new but this won't change the fact that they are a huge relegation candidate and would need to improve a lot to really start taking points on a regular basis. The "new coach boost factor" has probably effected the odds too much here..
BET ON Velez -0.25 with ->Pinnacle, odds 1.87, probability estimation 60%
October 19 2019 Veracruz Tiburones Vs Club Tigres
An interesting match betting-wise! Veracruz's players might not want to play this game! The reason is that the club has not paid them! This if course is not unheard of in Mexican soccer. The team’s situation is chaotic indeed. The club truly is a mess on many levels. Veracruz haven’t won any of their last 33 matches!
So these are the options going to the match A) Regulars play with a bad motivation and probably pretty poor preparation B) Regulars really do not play and then the club decides play with mostly young players. In this case odds would drop a lot for sure. C) They do not play (bets would void). The visitors have to win here and have been playing a little better than recent results show.!
BET ON Tigres -1.5. odds 2.25 with Unibet/888sport, estimation (due to the weird nature of the game not as sharp as normally) 58%.
Sources:
heraldodemexico.com.mx/meta/veracruz-no-jugara-tigres-jornada-14-adeudos-directiva-jugadores/
6 March Vitre vs Nantes under 2.5 goals 2.03 with, estimation 54%Vitre vs Nantes under 2.5 goals 2.03 with, estimation 54%, stake $120
7 March 2019 Rennes vs Arsenal
Rennes caused a huge upset in the last round, knocking out well fancied Real Betis 6-4 on aggregate to progress this far.
The French side were very fortunate to come through that tie though, as according to expected goals they were certainly not the better team, and very lucky to hit the net six times from the chances they created. 2nd leg expected goals were: Betis 3.85 and 3.53 for Rennes
While Rennes have created good chances in the Europa League this season, averaging 1.59 xGF per game, defensively they are quite vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.23 xG against teams alot worse than Arsenal, so could struggle here.
Arsenal themselves had to overcome a first leg defeat to BATE Borisov in the last round, but made light work of their opponents in the second leg to deservedly qualify (2 Leg xG: Arsenal 4.07 and 1.13 Bate. Bate are not a bad team at alla but stood no chance.
They were far superior to their opponents in that game, and were very unlucky to lose the first leg in Belarus, and their performances in Europe have been exceptional this season, and they are rightly one of the favourites for the competition.
Unai Emery’s side have averaged 1.99 xGF per game, while conceding just 0.62 xGA per game, and if they continue to perform in a similar way, they should have few problems in this game.
With this all this and the overall quality of Arsenal as a big, traditional team mind, it is a bit of a surprise see the Gunners at a decent price of slightly better than even money, which represents nice value.
Bet on Arsenal 2.04 with ->Pinnaclesports.com, estimation 53%, recommended stake $70
20 June 2018 Uruguay vs Saudi-Arabia
We all knew Saudi-Arabia is the worst team in the World Cup but they are clearly the worst team! Of course 5-0 against Russia was too much if we take a expected goals (xG) Russia 2.1, Saudis pathetic 0.2 into consideration but still most of all their defense looked terrible. Uruguay have more offensive power than Russia ( yes, I know Russia have scored 8 goals now) and will exploit chances offered by "amateurish" Saudis. Normally the value is for sure not on heavy faves in betting but today it is! Seems like most pro bettors we know are with Uruguay today so I really don't know who is betting on Saudis.We do suspect odds will drop so place your bets now!
Bet on Uruguay -1.75 goals 1.95 with Sbobet.com, estimation 60%.
5 June 2018 Luxembourg vs Georgia
This is a friendly match with nice value available. Luxembourg are a rising football power and it is possible in 2022 they are where another small country Belgium are now - one of favorites to win World Cup. Just kidding, but they really are on the rise even managed to steal a point from France in France sometime ago shocking the football fans and many bettors who forgot what value means! Odds on France were generally below 1.05!
The only team Luxemburg lost at home in past year is another rising team Austria. Today they will face more of a team who are same level with themselves. Luxembourg were a horrific home team for long time but since 1 year didn't do so bad against Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria and Hungary.
Bet on Luxembourg +0.5 1.91 with 188bet.com, estimation 57%
