Key things in pro soccer betting overall:
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Basic power ratings for both teams (0-100)
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Understanding what expected goals (xG) mean
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Style of play - biggest strenghts and weaknesses
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Line ups -> update the power rating if you know how
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Motivation
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Home advantage vs average home in the league in question
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Pitch (grass, artificial turf etc)
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Weather (rain, snow, wind etc)
Go to" Pro strategies" for more info
Soccer is by far the second best sport for us money-wise with some 700-900 bets per year. Tennis being the best. However the yield in NFL and Formula 1 is bigger than in tennis and soccer. Some picks contain detailed analysis followed by a probability estimation, based on which the expected value is determined. Some come with just the odds and where to place the bet. Pinnacle is the most important betting account for a serious bettor but in many cases the top odds can be found with other bookies too. Compare the odds carefully before placing your bet!
19 October Veracruz Tiburones Vs Club Tigres
An interesting match betting-wise! Veracruz's players might not want to play this game! The reason is that the club has not paid them! This if course is not unheard of in Mexican soccer. The team’s situation is chaotic indeed. The club truly is a mess on many levels. Veracruz haven’t won any of their last 33 matches!
So these are the options going to the match A) Regulars play with a bad motivation and probably pretty poor preparation B) Regulars really do not play and then the club decides play with mostly young players. In this case odds would drop a lot for sure. C) They do not play (bets would void). The visitors have to win here and have been playing a little better than recent results show.!
BET ON Tigres -1.5. odds 2.25 with Unibet/888sport, estimation (due to the weird nature of the game not as sharp as normally) 58%.
Sources:
heraldodemexico.com.mx/meta/veracruz-no-jugara-tigres-jornada-14-adeudos-directiva-jugadores/
6 March Vitre vs Nantes under 2.5 goals 2.03 with, estimation 54%Vitre vs Nantes under 2.5 goals 2.03 with, estimation 54%, stake $120
7 March 2019 Rennes vs Arsenal
Rennes caused a huge upset in the last round, knocking out well fancied Real Betis 6-4 on aggregate to progress this far.
The French side were very fortunate to come through that tie though, as according to expected goals they were certainly not the better team, and very lucky to hit the net six times from the chances they created. 2nd leg expected goals were: Betis 3.85 and 3.53 for Rennes
While Rennes have created good chances in the Europa League this season, averaging 1.59 xGF per game, defensively they are quite vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.23 xG against teams alot worse than Arsenal, so could struggle here.
Arsenal themselves had to overcome a first leg defeat to BATE Borisov in the last round, but made light work of their opponents in the second leg to deservedly qualify (2 Leg xG: Arsenal 4.07 and 1.13 Bate. Bate are not a bad team at alla but stood no chance.
They were far superior to their opponents in that game, and were very unlucky to lose the first leg in Belarus, and their performances in Europe have been exceptional this season, and they are rightly one of the favourites for the competition.
Unai Emery’s side have averaged 1.99 xGF per game, while conceding just 0.62 xGA per game, and if they continue to perform in a similar way, they should have few problems in this game.
With this all this and the overall quality of Arsenal as a big, traditional team mind, it is a bit of a surprise see the Gunners at a decent price of slightly better than even money, which represents nice value.
Bet on Arsenal 2.04 with ->Pinnaclesports.com, estimation 53%, recommended stake $70
20 June 2018
We all knew Saudi-Arabia is the worst team in the World Cup but they are clearly the worst team! Of course 5-0 against Russia was too much if we take a expected goals (xG) Russia 2.1, Saudis pathetic 0.2 into consideration but still most of all their defense looked terrible. Uruguay have more offensive power than Russia ( yes, I know Russia have scored 8 goals now) and will exploit chances offered by "amateurish" Saudis. Normally the value is for sure not on heavy faves in betting but today it is! Seems like most pro bettors we know are with Uruguay today so I really don't know who is betting on Saudis.We do suspect odds will drop so place your bets now!
Bet on Uruguay -1.75 goals 1.95 with Sbobet.com, estimation 60%.
June 5 2018 Luxembourg vs Georgia
This is a friendly match with nice value available. Luxembourg are a rising football power and it is possible in 2022 they are where another small country Belgium are now - one of favorites to win World Cup. Just kidding, but they really are on the rise even managed to steal a point from France in France sometime ago shocking the football fans and many bettors who forgot what value means! Odds on France were generally below 1.05!
The only team Luxemburg lost at home in past year is another rising team Austria. Today they will face more of a team who are same level with themselves. Luxembourg were a horrific home team for long time but since 1 year didn't do so bad against Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria and Hungary.
Bet on Luxembourg +0.5 1.91 with 188bet.com, estimation 57%
October 12 2017 Gremio vs Corinthians
The number of home wins in Brazil is bigger than in any other major league. The schedule there is gruelling and some of the distances covered huge and conditions very different from one venue to another, they have averaged 53% over the last three campaigns and going back to 2000 they have never really dipped below 48%. So far this season they are running at 43%, it is hard to really provide a reason for this. The home advantage is for sure bigger than some bookies think.
The number of home wins in Brazil is bigger than in any other major league. The schedule there is gruelling and some of the distances covered huge and conditions very different from one venue to another. Brazil has averaged 53% over the last three campaigns and going back to 2000 the number has never really dipped below 48%. So far this season the nuber is running at 43%, it is hard to really provide a good reason for this. The home advantage is for sure bigger than some bookies think.
According to our numbers, Cruzeiro along with Flamengo are the best team in Brazil currently, they are 4th, 11 points behind Corinthians and have played one game more, so they are not going to win the title, they also might lack a little motivation on the road in the league from here on after already sealing a Copa Libertadores group stage place for next season with their Copa do Brasil victory.
Gremio will for sure have their eye on some Copa revenge, they also play Corinthians next week and would surely like to go into that game with a title chance. If nothing else, they will want to finish top 4 to seal a Libertadores group stage place of their own. They are still in the international competition this season, the only team from Brazil in the final 4, next game is in two weeks, that will then take priority I guess, but for now, there are four games in the interim and the chance to collect some points and keep options open. Cruzeiro actually played last weekend , hosting and beating Ponte Preta 2-1 quite easilly in the only league game of the week. The visitors fave Gremio today without preferred centre back of Leo and Murilo.
Bet on Gremio 2.04 with Sbobet.com, estimation 54%
6 October 2017 Mali vs Ivory Coast
A relatively rare pick on African soccer here. In our view there is a substantial difference in class between these two teams! Ivory Coast started the campaign very well taking 7 points from their first three games. Later they got trouble but they have been better than the resuts indicate.
They should indeed have ten points in their pocket and one foot on the plane to Russia! Well, they don't and the stakes are high today offreing one of the best value bets in weeks. Normally bets of this big value are not released for free but we decided to make an expection today celebrating 150 paid members!
We do have a lot of faith in a quality team like Ivory Coast (IC) The value is not often with an away fave but let's see why it is today. IC defended really well and in a disciplined way in Marrakesh and really dominated in Gabon, despite the results. They did beat Mali, who are practically eliminated already. Of course Mali would like to beat their neigbhbors but the for sure the visitors have more motivation here. Our team added some 4.5% for motivation on the probablity estimation (IC to win). The visitors have hugely experienced and classy offensive players in Kalou, Gervinho, Bony, Doumbia and Kodjia, plus a very talented young crop of hungry forsuccess players in the 21-23 age group, they have qualified for the last three World Cups. Also let's not forget they won the ACN in 2015. Odds already dropping at the time of writing this. Must be over 50% on Ivory Coast here. Huge value!
Bet on Ivory Coast at 2.35 with BetHard.com, estimation 54%