Key things in pro soccer betting overall:
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Basic power ratings for both teams (0-100)
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Understanding what expected goals (xG) mean
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Style of play - biggest strenghts and weaknesses
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Line ups -> update the power rating if you know how
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Motivation
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Home advantage vs average home in the league in question
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Pitch (grass, artificial turf etc)
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Weather (rain, snow, wind etc)
Go to" Pro strategies" for more info
Soccer is by far the second best sport for us money-wise with some 700-900 bets per year. The best is tennis. However the yield in NFL and Formula 1 has been even bigger than in tennis and soccer! Some picks contain detailed analysis followed by a probability estimation, based on which the expected value is determined. Some come with just the odds and where to place the bet. Pinnacle is the most important betting account for a serious bettor but in many cases the top odds can be found with other bookies too. Compare the odds carefully before placing your bet!
Below 2 picks with GIGANTIC expected value. No use writing a long preview as odds will drop soon!
Greece soccer Jan 19 Doxa Dramas vs Apollon Pontou Kalamaria
BET ON Doxa Dramas (-2) (Handicap Result) odds 2.60 with bet365, estimation 51%, Kalamaria in serious financial trouble. Will field young players if they play at all!!! Odds will be slashed!
Greece soccer Jan 19 Panachaiki vs Kerkyra
BET ON Panachaiki -1.0 (Alternative Handicap Result) odds 1.67 with bet365, 72%, Odds will drop!
Basically the same situation as with Kalamaria!!
odds will drop.
Kerkyra in serious financial trouble, young players will play ( if the the team plays at all..)
Turkey Super Lig Jan 19 2020 Besiktas vs Sivasspor
Besiktas, a traditional big club of course have been one of the best Turkish teams in the last a couple of decades and are the favorites to win this match. However the glory days seem to be behind for Besiktas, at least for this season. Their financial situation is not great to say the least and they are unable to buy new players add more (offensive) power to the team. Besiktas are a huge team and brand in Turkey and have fans (and people who like to bet on them) all over the planet! Of course their season has not been terrible not or a catastrophe and they are currently 5th in the Turkish Super Lig. For sure Besiktas are the favorites to win this match but the value, all we care about in betting, is definitely on Sivasspor. We will go for Sivasspor +0.5 goals. A sharp probability estimation will be available at the end of this preview.
Indeed, it's often, but not always, a good idea in betting in general to go against the big, word-class as well as on local well-known brands like Juventus, Real Madrid or Manchester United in betting, especially in handicap betting and in situations where the underdogs, Sivasspor in this case have shown solid play, especially solid defense. Indeed, Sivasspor have conceded only 16 goals so far this season. They have been better than we would have expected before the season and have also been a little lucky in terms of expected goals calculations I have made this season. However despite being the leaders in league the betting market doesn't not seem to value them enough. It's also possible bookies do know they play great soccer but they just don't attract that much betting money leaving the odds too high in many matches.. Most bookies need to adjust the odds based on the amount of money being placed on each outcome of the match to avoid too big risks/ risk positions.
So we have an offensively pretty ineffective Besiktas versus a solid defense and great fighting spirit. Besiktas seem to rely too much on individual skill. The situation has been the same pretty much the whole season. Besiktas do have skilled players, no denying that, but the fact is that they fail to clear too much scoring chances even at home, and taking a look at expected goals the 5th place they occupy at the moment is what they have deserved.
A few more words about Sivasspor. The leaders of Super Lig, Sivasspor, are a young team playing a very high-tempo football. Most of their players seem to be in awesome physical shape which can easily be seen during the last 10-15 minutes of the match. Their play well characterized by intricate passing - a true pleasure to watch! They have a very solid back four and a talented goalkeeper. Great tools for a winning team. All these facts mentioned above make them a very tough team to beat. Yandas' absence is a of course a big minus here and yet Sivasspor still have enough quality to make this close to a coin toss (50/50) match. To be honest I believe the market has over-rated the significance of Yanda's absence here. In general the betting market often over-rates the meaning of a key/star player. Yes, missing him lowers Sivasspor's chances in this match, but we get a lot higher odds in return. This is all about value and I'm happy to go with Sivaspor here against pretty hapless Besiktas.
Estimation: home win 42% - draw 28% - away win 30%
BET ON Sivaspor +0.5, estimation 58% odds 2.01 with -> Pinnacle
Odds around 2.00 on Sivasspor +0.5 goals (Asian handicap) widely available online. 28%+30%=58% on Sivasspor +0.5 goals (draw or Sivasspor win)
January 4 English soccer: Stockport vs Boreham Wood
Interesting early lines and odds opened by the bookies here! Indeed, We think the early lines were just based on the league table where both teams scored nearly the same but Stockport conceded more goals. The true class of these two teams is far from similar though. Let's take a quick look...
Stockport dominated the whole match against Halifax wasting lots of great chances. The team kept pressing on the whole match despite some stupid mistakes from defensive players. They definitely should be favored here in this incoming home match. Boreham Wood on the contrary was really bad in the recent games especially in yesterday's game they "created" several horrible mistakes in defense and offensive players seemed too afraid to break through and all the attack they delivered to Barnet were more or less boring, aimless long shots. Boreham players' visits on the in their opponent penalty area were very few. The home team in our soccer team's opinion should have at least 45% chance of winning here - 2.80 available with Pinnacle is great value and odds are likely to be cut soon! An old fact well-known among pro-bettors is " the lower the league the better the overlays" is very true with this event!
BET ON Stockport to win, odds 2.80 with -> Pinnacle.com
December 9 Argentina Super League Patronato vs Velez
Pretty solid value available here. Let's take a look why.. Under interim boss Martin De Leon, Patronato suffered a 2-0 away defeat at San Lorenzo last weekend. The team are winless in their last ten league matches - three draw and seven losses. The have scored lame 13 points in 15 games. and are seven points from safety. At home Patronato have collected only two points from the last 4 matches. Patronato will oversee the debut of coach G. Alvarez after Mario Sciacqua’s resignation. Let's see if he can give the traditional "new coach boost" to the team. Our team of analysts is pretty doubtful though.. L. Comas remains sidelined, as well as his usual replacement S.Rosales.
Velez Sarsfield is not in terrific form either to be honest. But their four-game winless run of three draws and a defeat in the league came to an end last time out in a match were they looked much improved to beating Colon 3-1 at home. As a result, El Fortin are now on 25 points and still only four behind legendary team Boca Juniors and Argentinos Juniors. Velez did lose their last away game at Banfield, which stopped a four-match unbeaten run of winning three times and playing a draw on the road. We give them a slightly over 50% of taking all three points today! So, Patronato have a new but this won't change the fact that they are a huge relegation candidate and would need to improve a lot to really start taking points on a regular basis. The "new coach boost factor" has probably effected the odds too much here..
BET ON Velez -0.25 with ->Pinnacle, odds 1.87, probability estimation 60%
October 19 2019 Veracruz Tiburones Vs Club Tigres
An interesting match betting-wise! Veracruz's players might not want to play this game! The reason is that the club has not paid them! This if course is not unheard of in Mexican soccer. The team’s situation is chaotic indeed. The club truly is a mess on many levels. Veracruz haven’t won any of their last 33 matches!
So these are the options going to the match A) Regulars play with a bad motivation and probably pretty poor preparation B) Regulars really do not play and then the club decides play with mostly young players. In this case odds would drop a lot for sure. C) They do not play (bets would void). The visitors have to win here and have been playing a little better than recent results show.!
BET ON Tigres -1.5. odds 2.25 with Unibet/888sport, estimation (due to the weird nature of the game not as sharp as normally) 58%.
Sources:
heraldodemexico.com.mx/meta/veracruz-no-jugara-tigres-jornada-14-adeudos-directiva-jugadores/
6 March Vitre vs Nantes under 2.5 goals 2.03 with, estimation 54%Vitre vs Nantes under 2.5 goals 2.03 with, estimation 54%, stake $120
7 March 2019 Rennes vs Arsenal
Rennes caused a huge upset in the last round, knocking out well fancied Real Betis 6-4 on aggregate to progress this far.
The French side were very fortunate to come through that tie though, as according to expected goals they were certainly not the better team, and very lucky to hit the net six times from the chances they created. 2nd leg expected goals were: Betis 3.85 and 3.53 for Rennes
While Rennes have created good chances in the Europa League this season, averaging 1.59 xGF per game, defensively they are quite vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.23 xG against teams alot worse than Arsenal, so could struggle here.
Arsenal themselves had to overcome a first leg defeat to BATE Borisov in the last round, but made light work of their opponents in the second leg to deservedly qualify (2 Leg xG: Arsenal 4.07 and 1.13 Bate. Bate are not a bad team at alla but stood no chance.
They were far superior to their opponents in that game, and were very unlucky to lose the first leg in Belarus, and their performances in Europe have been exceptional this season, and they are rightly one of the favourites for the competition.
Unai Emery’s side have averaged 1.99 xGF per game, while conceding just 0.62 xGA per game, and if they continue to perform in a similar way, they should have few problems in this game.
With this all this and the overall quality of Arsenal as a big, traditional team mind, it is a bit of a surprise see the Gunners at a decent price of slightly better than even money, which represents nice value.
Bet on Arsenal 2.04 with ->Pinnaclesports.com, estimation 53%, recommended stake $70
20 June 2018 Uruguay vs Saudi-Arabia
We all knew Saudi-Arabia is the worst team in the World Cup but they are clearly the worst team! Of course 5-0 against Russia was too much if we take a expected goals (xG) Russia 2.1, Saudis pathetic 0.2 into consideration but still most of all their defense looked terrible. Uruguay have more offensive power than Russia ( yes, I know Russia have scored 8 goals now) and will exploit chances offered by "amateurish" Saudis. Normally the value is for sure not on heavy faves in betting but today it is! Seems like most pro bettors we know are with Uruguay today so I really don't know who is betting on Saudis.We do suspect odds will drop so place your bets now!
Bet on Uruguay -1.75 goals 1.95 with Sbobet.com, estimation 60%.
5 June 2018 Luxembourg vs Georgia
This is a friendly match with nice value available. Luxembourg are a rising football power and it is possible in 2022 they are where another small country Belgium are now - one of favorites to win World Cup. Just kidding, but they really are on the rise even managed to steal a point from France in France sometime ago shocking the football fans and many bettors who forgot what value means! Odds on France were generally below 1.05!
The only team Luxemburg lost at home in past year is another rising team Austria. Today they will face more of a team who are same level with themselves. Luxembourg were a horrific home team for long time but since 1 year didn't do so bad against Albania, Belarus, Bulgaria and Hungary.
Bet on Luxembourg +0.5 1.91 with 188bet.com, estimation 57%
October 12 2017 Gremio vs Corinthians
The number of home wins in Brazil is bigger than in any other major league. The schedule there is grueling and some of the distances covered huge and conditions very different from one venue to another, they have averaged 53% over the last three campaigns and going back to 2000 they have never really dipped below 48%. So far this season they are running at 43%, it is hard to really provide a reason for this. The home advantage is for sure bigger than some bookies think.
The number of home wins in Brazil is bigger than in any other major league. The schedule there is grueling and some of the distances covered huge and conditions very different from one venue to another. Brazil has averaged 53% over the last three campaigns and going back to 2000 the number has never really dipped below 48%. So far this season the number is running at 43%, it is hard to really provide a good reason for this. The home advantage is for sure bigger than some bookies think.
According to our numbers, Cruzeiro along with Flamengo are the best team in Brazil currently, they are 4th, 11 points behind Corinthians and have played one game more, so they are not going to win the title, they also might lack a little motivation on the road in the league from here on after already sealing a Copa Libertadores group stage place for next season with their Copa do Brasil victory.
Gremio will for sure have their eye on some Copa revenge, they also play Corinthians next week and would surely like to go into that game with a title chance. If nothing else, they will want to finish top 4 to seal a Libertadores group stage place of their own. They are still in the international competition this season, the only team from Brazil in the final 4, next game is in two weeks, that will then take priority I guess, but for now, there are four games in the interim and the chance to collect some points and keep options open. Cruzeiro actually played last weekend , hosting and beating Ponte Preta 2-1 quite easily in the only league game of the week. The visitors fave Gremio today without preferred center back of Leo and Murilo.
Bet on Gremio 2.04 with Sbobet.com, estimation 54%
October 6 2017 Mali vs Ivory Coast
A relatively rare pick on African soccer here. In our view there is a substantial difference in class between these two teams! Ivory Coast started the campaign very well taking 7 points from their first three games. Later they got trouble but they have been better than the resuts indicate.
They should indeed have ten points in their pocket and one foot on the plane to Russia! Well, they don't and the stakes are high today offreing one of the best value bets in weeks. Normally bets of this big value are not released for free but we decided to make an expection today celebrating 150 paid members!
We do have a lot of faith in a quality team like Ivory Coast (IC) The value is not often with an away fave but let's see why it is today. IC defended really well and in a disciplined way in Marrakesh and really dominated in Gabon, despite the results. They did beat Mali, who are practically eliminated already. Of course Mali would like to beat their neigbhbors but the for sure the visitors have more motivation here. Our team added some 4.5% for motivation on the probablity estimation (IC to win). The visitors have hugely experienced and classy offensive players in Kalou, Gervinho, Bony, Doumbia and Kodjia, plus a very talented young crop of hungry forsuccess players in the 21-23 age group, they have qualified for the last three World Cups. Also let's not forget they won the ACN in 2015. Odds already dropping at the time of writing this. Must be over 50% on Ivory Coast here. Huge value!
Bet on Ivory Coast at 2.35 with BetHard.com, estimation 54%