Soccer
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April 25
Sandhausen vs Hannover
After backing Sandhausen in their previous match (paid pick) at home to Hamburg we will have to go against them now, because it's just really weird how much the market has change for this match. Are Hamburg one goal better a team than Hannover? Surely not, perhaps a quarter goal, but definitely not more in our opinion. We said fair line for HSV win at Sandhausen was around 1.95 if HSV is a quarter goal better that would make Hannover-0.25 at the odds of 2.00 the fair line, but now we have +0 handicap now and that line underestimates Hannover who have really looked good lately. Sandhausen were indeed pretty impressive against Hamburg, this is still the same team, that was on the 17th place before that much and whose raw class is not that high so let's not overreact and on the contrary take advantage of the over-reaction and back the visitors here!
BET ON Hannover to win +0 asian handicap, odds 1.92 with 188bet. Check Sportmarket.com for a collection of low margin bookies who might offer even better odds than 1.92!
Probability estimation 57%
17 November EURO Qualifying Kazakhstan vs San Marino
I am betting the Kazaks here - 3, they have a genuine chance of qualification from their group to a major tournament for the first time, needing 3 points there are not many better teams to have to face than San Marino and at home too. San Marino have lost 3 of their 4 away games in this group by at least 3 goals and I can see the Kazaks cover this handicap solely because they are fully motivated betting the Kazaks -3.
BET ON: Kazakhstan -3 goals, odds of around 1.90 widely avilable
Finland vs Northern Ireland
I am betting Finland -0.5 here against an Northern Ireland side who are already eliminated from the group and with no chance of qualification, Finland know they have a playoff game approaching so they will sure to be focussed ahead of the match. Northern Ireland are also missing Johnny Evans of Manchester United, Shea Charles of Southampton and goalkeeper Baily Peacock Farrell of Aarhus all quite important players for the North and further reason why I believe Finland will have too much for this young Northern Ireland team.
BET on: Finland to win, odds of around 2.15 widely available
Moldova vs Albania
I am betting Moldova when they host Albania today, Moldova face an Albanian side who have already qualified however Moldova have an outside chance of qualification and know only a win will suffice, so I believe +0.5 is worth a go for a side that improved by quite some distance of late, having took a point in Poland and beat them at home and drew with the Czechs I think they are value to take something from an Albania side that may be lacking some motivation.
BET ON: Moldova +0.5 goals, odds of around 2.00 widely available
February 23
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
We see two teams playing very high-scoring games, they almost always score in their matches. Man United games average exactly 3 goals, Atletico games 3.3. Their players are very talented in both scoring and conceding goals. 45-34, and 44-34 goals scored and received in the league. To elaborate a bit, MU's last game ended 4-2. They might be coming out of their slump, Bruno has once again put in a classy performance. And they conceded two goals... Man United have only failed to score against Wolves, City, Liverpool, Villa in the league.
Atletico were also in crisis, but last time they finally won again cruelly. Atletico almost always score goals in their matches. In the league they have only failed to score against Alaves, Bilbao, Real and recently Levante! In all the others they have scored.
The two have not scored in 4 of their 26 and 25 games respectively. In most of their games they have BTTS, although it's not a big majority, but it's natural somewhere that against a Man. City, Real Madrid, Levante or Burnley, against teams that are too strong or too weak and defensive both teams don't score. But these teams are not too strong, too defensive, they are good enough to score against each other and they tend to concede goals.
The only problem could be that it's the first game in an important cup and maybe they'll be too cautious, too defensive, but we don't think the basic nature of the teams will be too much affected.We think there's a very good chance BTTS will come.
Odds of almost 2.00 are widely available online
Estimation 55%