November 27 Chance Liga Sigma Olomouc VS Synot Slovacko

 

 

Sigma Olomouc and Slovacko lock horns in this Chache Liga round 15 battle at Andruv stadion in Olomouc very early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Czech football. The level of this league is pretty average by European standards. The best three teams are pretty good though. Sparta Prague even play in the UEFA Champions League league phase this season. A game of somewhat mediocre quality by this league's standard's is expected here! Most importantly, us serious, profit-hungry bettors have yet another very interesting betting opportunity here! Slovacko were better than Sigma Olomouc last season, taking 41 points and had a score difference of 39:40. Sigma Olomouc finished in 8th place and had a much weaker goal difference. At the moment Slovacko are in 9th place with 20 points to their account. They can definitely improve. Yes, they have scored only 10 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is much bigger. The Slovacko defence has worked well, mainly thanks to a solid structure and great fighting spirit. Their midfielders also actively take part in defending. Sigma Olomouc are in 12th place. They have allowed 23 goals but have netted the ball a decent 20 times in this league.

 

The hosts will be without Julis and Rusek. Ulrica is questionable. As for the visitors, Danicek is injured. With the expected lineups, taking the mediocre home advantage into account I see this game as a coin toss- a 50/50 game without a favourite. The bookies disagree, offering the hosts odds of only around 2.15 to win. The Slovacko +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here! Sigma Olomouc have, after all, not won any of their last three home games. They have won only one of their most recent six matches. In their last game they were poor, losing to Liberec at home as pretty clear favourites – priced around 2.25 to win. The visitors recorded many more goal attempts and shots on goal – 9-3. The xG numbers were 0.82-2.76 in the visitors' favour! Before this they lost to Karvina 1-2 on the road. The xG numbers were 2.11-1.12. Slovacko were unlucky not to get a home win over Slovacko. It was a 1-1 draw but the hosts recorded many more goal attempts and shots on goal – 4-1. The xG numbers were 2.34-0.71. Before this Slovacko were excellent, beating the 3rd-best team in this league – by pure class – Plzen 1-0 home. Slovacko, once again, defended extremely well, not allowing Plzen a single shot on goal. Slovacko were priced close to 5.00 to win by the bookies. The xG numbers were 0.93-0.73.

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Bet on: Slovacko +0.5 goals, odds of around 1.70 widely available, chance of winning, 65%

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Partick Thistle FC VS Falkirk

 

 

Partick Thistle host Falkirk for this Scottish Championship round 11 clash at Firhill Stadium in Glasgow. However, in reality all teams have played either eight or nine games. The level of this league is somewhat low by European standards – for a second tier I mean. Us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of high quality by this league's standards. Indeed, Falkirk currently top the standings with a fine 19 points in their pocket. However, their number of expected points is much lower. They have netted the ball 13 times and have allowed five goals. Their strong start to the season is rather surprising as they were promoted from the League One to this level for this season. I want to highlight that the difference between these two leagues is massive! Let's also remember that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Partick Thistle are the much bigger team here! Indeed, their players have an estimated total market value of some 4.2 million euros! This is, however, slightly too low. Some 5.5 million would be a more realistic number. The St. Falkirk squad is valued at around 2.4 million. This, too, is a bit too low though. Many of their players have played above their normal level so far this season. Partick Thistle played strong last season, finishing in 3rd place after the regular season. They consequently played in the Promotion finals but lost to Raith 3-4 on aggregate, despite recording more goal attempts in both legs. Another pretty season is on the cards for them. At the moment they are only in the 6th place with nine points to their account but have had some bad luck in quite a few balanced games. Their offense has unarguably been a disappointment though – they have scored just six goals. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is higher!  The hosts can undoubtedly improve their offense significantly! They should move the ball faster near – and inside the opponent's penalty box. Their defence, on the other hand, is very well structured. They have conceded only five goals.

 

Falkirk have won only one of their last four games, losing 2/4. In their last game they were priced around 1.70 to beat Livingston at home. It was, however, a 1-1 draw. The ball possession was 50-50% and Falkirk recorded more goal attempts – 11-8. Taking the odds into account, their performance was a slight disappointment as a whole. Before this they defeated Ayr 2-0 at home as clear favourites. However, the visitors, too, had their chances. The hosts recorded two more shots on goal. In round 7, on the 28th of September Falkirk were very lame offensively, losing to Raith 0-1 on the road. The hosts recorded more shots on goal and goal attempts. They were priced around 1.75 to win at the time of the kickoff. This was, based on the events on the pitch, clearly too low! The fact that bookies see this as the favourites - odds on the away win are around 2.35 -  here against Partick Thistle really surprises me! With the expected lineups, taking the substantial home advantage into account, the hosts are definitely the favourites here! Partick Thistle, too, have been in mediocre form recently. In their last game they played a goalless draw with Livingston at home but recorded many more goal attempts (13-9) and shots off goal. Before this they were far from their best and lost to Hamilton 0-1 on the road but the game was somewhat balanced. I want to mention that Hamilton defended much better than they usually do. In round 6, on the 21st of last month Partick Thistle deservedly beat Dunfermline 1-0 at home, allowing the visitors very little promising scoring chances.

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Bet on: Partick Thistle +0.5 goals, odds of around 1.55 widely available, chance of winning, 70%

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17 November EURO Qualifying Kazakhstan vs San Marino

 

I am betting the Kazaks here - 3, they have a genuine chance of qualification from their group to a major tournament for the first time, needing 3 points there are not many better teams to have to face than San Marino and at home too. San Marino have lost 3 of their 4 away games in this group by at least 3 goals and I can see the Kazaks cover this handicap solely because they are fully motivated betting the Kazaks -3.

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BET ON: Kazakhstan -3 goals, odds of around 1.90 widely avilable 

 

 

                        Finland vs Northern Ireland

 

I am betting Finland -0.5 here against an Northern Ireland side who are already eliminated from the group and with no chance of qualification, Finland know they have a playoff game approaching so they will sure to be focussed ahead of the match. Northern Ireland are also missing Johnny Evans of Manchester United, Shea Charles of Southampton and goalkeeper Baily Peacock Farrell of Aarhus all quite important players for the North and further reason why I believe Finland will have too much for this young Northern Ireland team.

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BET on: Finland to win, odds of around 2.15 widely available

 

                             Moldova vs Albania

 

I am betting Moldova when they host Albania today, Moldova face an Albanian side who have already qualified however Moldova have an outside chance of qualification and know only a win will suffice, so I believe +0.5 is worth a go for a side that improved by quite some distance of late, having took a point in Poland and beat them at home and drew with the Czechs I think they are value to take something from an Albania side that may be lacking some motivation.

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BET ON: Moldova +0.5 goals, odds of around 2.00 widely available

 

 

February 23

 

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

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We see two teams playing very high-scoring games, they almost always score in their matches. Man United games average exactly 3 goals, Atletico games 3.3. Their players are very talented in both scoring and conceding goals. 45-34, and 44-34 goals scored and received in the league. To elaborate a bit, MU's last game ended 4-2. They might be coming out of their slump, Bruno has once again put in a classy performance. And they conceded two goals... Man United have only failed to score against Wolves, City, Liverpool, Villa in the league.
Atletico were also in crisis, but last time they finally won again cruelly.  Atletico almost always score goals in their matches. In the league they have only failed to score against Alaves, Bilbao, Real and recently Levante! In all the others they have scored.
The two have not scored in 4 of their 26 and 25 games respectively. In most of their games they have BTTS, although it's not a big majority, but it's natural somewhere that against a Man. City, Real Madrid, Levante or Burnley, against teams that are too strong or too weak and defensive both teams don't score. But these teams are not too strong, too defensive, they are good enough to score against each other and they tend to concede goals.

 

The only problem could be that it's the first game in an important cup and maybe they'll be too cautious, too defensive, but we don't think the basic nature of the teams will be too much affected.We think there's a very good chance BTTS will come.

 

Odds of almost 2.00 are widely available online

Estimation 55%

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